California quake exercise shakes out some results
If you've ever despaired over getting your local communities to do disaster-preparedness drills, there are lessons to be learned from the Great Southern California Shake Out, a massive earthquake drill sponsored by a combination of agencies and private-sector entities across seven counties on Nov. 13, 2008.
The U.S. Geological Survey released some of the results of the drill just before Christmas, with the upshot being that not only was the drill a rousing success, with up to 5.47 million people participating across the region, there's a lot of enthusiasm across both government and private sectors for doing it again next year.
The Shake Out was a combined effort based on a scenario put together by USGS scientists. According to Dr. Lucile Jones, a seismologist and chief scientist for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, the scenario is based on what could happen if the southern portion of the San Andreas Fault erupted in a magnitude 7.8 earthquake.
The project was federally funded, but as it came into being, other agencies began to realize they could use the information. Eventually a coalition of agencies, including the California Earthquake Authority, Southern California Earthquake Center, the California Offices of Emergency Services and Homeland Security and governments at the both the county and city levels, as well as private companies, came together to put on the Shake Out event.
![]() Los Angeles firefighters participate in an earthquake drill at Bishop Alemany H.S. Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008, in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ric Francis) |
One of the elements was the Golden Guardian 2008 response and recovery exercise, which ran Nov. 13–18, pulled together federal, state and local first responders.
Mark Bassett, southern region administrator for the California Office of Emergency Services, said that although OES had already been planning the Golden Guardian exercise, the benefits of holding it in conjunction with the larger public preparedness drill became immediately obvious.
But even well-prepared responders won't be able to handle every need that’s generated by wide-ranging disasters such as major earthquakes. "We really can't respond to them effectively," Jones said, quoting an emergency manager she'd talked with during the planning process. She added, "There's mitigation and response, and the focus is almost always on the response."
In fact, Jones said, up to eight times as much government money is spent on response as on mitigation efforts, such as tax credits for retrofitting private homes. However, the Shake Out scenario woke up quite a few government officials to the reality that there is no way to economically afford the level of response required by such a huge disaster.
"Therefore, mitigation becomes the only option, and it's changed the nature of the discussion," Jones said.
Part of that is altering the behavior of the local populace, which is no mean trick. But to do that, Jones said, they had to reach out to another science. “We actually listened to the sociologists.”
![]() A makeup artist applies fake blood to Lauren Pierce, 15, a student at Bishop Alemany High School Nov. 13, 2008, in the Mission Hills section of Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ric Francis) |
Thanks to that expert help, the Shake Out committee found four key areas. The first was constant, continuous messaging from multiple sources. The group designed a Web site, but allowed other agencies to use artwork and also to focus on the "Drop, Cover and Hold On," message, which encourages people to get under tables and desks, a critical message when most Californians grew up thinking that it was better to get under a doorway.
The second point was visual reinforcement: taking advantage of the media because when people see others getting fire extinguishers and practicing getting under a desk, they're more likely to do the same.
The third key area is a little more subtle, using the process of "milling" as a way of encouraging conversation about the issue, particularly among loved ones. Because schools and companies were all participating, when the kids came home and mentioned Drop, Cover and Hold On, the parents could talk about it with them, as everyone had experienced the same drill. Jones also said that the drill was purposely staged two weeks before Thanksgiving to encourage discussion among family members coming together for the holiday.
Finally, because perceived risk does not motivate people to act, it's best to provide simple, concrete actions and show what the situation will be and how someone could manage, say, a small fire with their own fire extinguisher. Jones said that based on responses posted on the Web site, people do seem to be taking the message to heart.
But oddly enough, while the public response was encouraging, Bassett said that ultimately, the real success for him wasn’t the drill itself.
"The thing is, exercises are just that, exercises," he said. Having the science of the scenario, plus the interaction among the different jurisdictions, agencies and private-sector participants, made a big difference. “We were able to go to workshops, which gave us the ability to talk over the issues. I think the process was the most successful part, that we were able to get the state utilities on board. We had over seven workshops to get them in to discuss the scenario. That was where the success hit."
Which may be the best lesson of all, the next time you're trying to stage a disaster exercise.




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